On average across OECD countries, women make up 55% of upper secondary graduates in general programmes, but this figure goes down to 46% for vocational programmes.
On average across OECD countries, the average age in vocational programmes is higher than in general programmes (for both men and women).
Based on current patterns, it is estimated that on average across OECD countries, 81% of today’s young people will graduate from upper secondary education before the age of 25, compared to 73% in 2005.
Education at a Glance 2018
Indicator B3. Who is expected to graduate from upper secondary education?
Context
Upper secondary education, which develops students’ basic skills and knowledge through either academic or vocational pathways, aims to prepare students to enter further levels of education or the labour market and to become engaged citizens. In many countries, this level of education is not compulsory and can last from two to five years.
What is crucial, however, is to provide education of good quality that meets the needs of the labour market and the economy. Given that inequality in upper secondary education is likely to translate into inequality in tertiary education and in the labour market (see Indicator B7 and Chapter A), it is also important to ensure that graduation from upper secondary education is not dependent on gender, socio-economic or demographic background.
Graduating from upper secondary education has become increasingly important in all countries, as the skills needed in the labour market are becoming more knowledge-based, and workers are progressively required to adapt to the uncertainties of a rapidly changing global economy. However, while graduation rates give an indication of the extent to which education systems are succeeding in preparing students to meet the minimum requirements of the labour market, they do not capture the quality of education outcomes.
Other findings
At the upper secondary level, first-time graduation rates exceed 75% in more than four out of five countries with available data. At the post-secondary non-tertiary level, this rate is below 15% in almost three out of four countries with available data.
In countries for which data are available for 2005, 2010 and 2016, first-time graduation rates increased by 7 percentage points at the upper secondary level between 2005 and 2016. In contrast, they remained constant (around 11%) at the post-secondary non-tertiary level.
For both general and vocational programmes, students with at least one tertiary-educated parent are more likely to complete upper secondary education than students whose parents have not attained tertiary education.
Note
Graduation rates, when calculated for all ages, represent the estimated percentage of people from a given age cohort that is expected to graduate within the country at some point during their lifetime. This estimate is based on the number of graduates in 2016 and the age distribution of this group. Graduation rates are based on both the population and the current pattern of graduation and are thus sensitive to any changes in the education system, such as the introduction of new programmes and changes in the duration of programmes. Graduation rates can be very high during a period when an unexpected number of people go back to school.
When the age breakdown is not available, the gross graduation rate is calculated instead. This refers to the total number of graduates divided by the average cohort of the population at the typical age provided by the country.
In this indicator, age refers generally to the age of students at the beginning of the calendar year. Students could be one year older than the age indicated when they graduate at the end of the school year. Twenty-five is used as the upper age limit for completing secondary education because, across OECD countries, more than 95% of graduates from upper secondary general programmes in 2016 were under 25 (see Education at a Glance Database). People who graduate from this level at age 25 or older are usually enrolled in second-chance programmes. At the post-secondary non-tertiary level, 30 is considered to be the upper age limit for graduation.
In this edition of Education at a Glance, the focus is predominately on first-time graduates. The notion of graduates (i.e. all graduates, not only first-time graduates) is used only when measuring graduates by field of study (see Definitions section).
Analysis
Profile of upper secondary graduates
Profile of upper secondary graduates, by programme orientation
Although many countries have developed extensive vocational programmes at the secondary level, in most countries, most students pursue general programmes. First-time upper secondary graduates are students who obtained an upper secondary qualification for the first time. On average across OECD countries, 42% of first-time upper secondary graduates obtained a qualification from a vocational programme. The share of first-time graduates from vocational programmes is particularly low in Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Greece, Hungary, Japan, Korea and Lithuania (below 25%). In contrast, in Austria, the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic, more than 65% first-time graduates obtained a qualification from a vocational programme.
Vocational education and training (VET) is an important part of upper secondary education in many OECD countries, and it can play a central role in preparing young people for work, developing adults’ skills and responding to labour-market needs (see Indicator A1). But in some countries, VET has been neglected and marginalised in policy discussions, often overshadowed by the increasing emphasis on general academic education. However, an increasing number of countries are recognising that good initial VET can make a major contribution to economic competitiveness (OECD, 2015[1]).
Vocational programmes can be offered in combined school-based and work-based programmes, where less than 75% of the curriculum is presented in the school environment or through distance education. These include apprenticeship programmes that involve concurrent school-based and work-based training, and programmes that involve alternating periods of attendance at educational institutions and participation in work-based training. In countries such as Austria, Denmark, Germany, Latvia and Switzerland, this type of dual system attracts at least 30% of the students enrolled in upper secondary VET programmes (see Indicator B1). Through work-based learning, students acquire the skills that are valued in the workplace. Work-based learning is also a way to develop public-private partnerships and to involve social partners and employers in developing VET programmes, often by defining curricular frameworks.
Moreover, high-quality VET programmes can be effective in developing skills among those who would otherwise lack the qualifications to ensure a smooth and successful transition into the labour market. Employment rates tend to be higher, and inactivity rates lower, among young adults who graduated from vocational training than among those who pursued an upper secondary general programme as their highest level of educational attainment (see Education at a Glance Database). However, it is important to ensure that graduates of upper secondary VET programmes have good employment opportunities, since VET can be more expensive than other education programmes (see Indicator C1).
Profile of upper secondary graduates, by gender
The share of women tends to be significantly higher in upper secondary general programmes than in vocational programmes. On average across OECD countries, women make up 55% of upper secondary graduates in general programmes, compared to 46% in vocational programmes.
In almost all countries with available data, women make up at least half of upper secondary graduates from general programmes, ranging from 49% in Korea to 60% in the Czech Republic and 62% in Italy. In contrast, women are under-represented in vocational programmes in more than three-quarters of the countries with available data.
There is, however, significant cross-country variation in vocational programmes. The share of women ranges from less than 36% in Greece and Lithuania to more than 60% in Ireland and New Zealand. In fact, Ireland and New Zealand are two of just four countries where women make up a higher share of graduates in vocational programmes than in general programmes (with around 60% of women among vocational graduates and around 50% among general graduates). In the other two countries, Brazil and Colombia, the difference between the share of women in vocational and general programmes is much smaller (below 3 percentage points).
Profile of upper secondary vocational graduates, by field of study
On average across OECD countries, 34% of graduates in vocational programmes earn a diploma with a specialisation in engineering, manufacturing and construction. This drops to 19% for a diploma in business, administration and law, 17% in services, and 12% in health and welfare. However, this pattern does not hold for every country. In Brazil, Colombia, Italy, Luxembourg, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, most upper secondary graduates in vocational programmes obtained a qualification in business, administration and law. In Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain, the most popular field is health and welfare, and in New Zealand and Portugal, it is services (Table B3.1).
The percentage of women pursuing a programme in engineering, manufacturing and construction is low at the upper secondary vocational level: only 12% of graduates in this field of study are women. On the other hand, women are over-represented in health and welfare, where they make up 77% of the graduates. In fact, in health and welfare, the share of female graduates exceeds 75% in all countries except Italy (74%), New Zealand (72%), Poland (68%), Slovenia (73%) and Sweden (73%). Some countries, such as Colombia, Estonia and Latvia, do not offer such programmes at the upper secondary level. Between these two extremes, there is more gender balance in the field of services (where, on average, 60% of graduates are women) and in business, administration and law (where 66% of graduates are women).
The gender gap by fields of study may be due, in part, to social perceptions of what women and men excel at and the careers they can pursue. For example, the low share of women in the field of engineering, manufacturing and construction may result from the social perception of science as being a masculine domain, which may discourage women from pursuing studies in that field (OECD, 2015[2]). From an equity perspective, it is crucial to ensure that men and women have the same opportunities in their personal and professional lives, and formal education plays an important role in that regard (OECD, 2014[3]). Gender diversity has also been acknowledged as highly beneficial for the performance and productivity of teams within the labour market (Hoogendoorn, Oosterbeek and van Praag, 2013[4]).
Profile of upper secondary graduates, by age
Graduation rates vary according to the age of the students. Students’ age at graduation can be related to changes in the education system, such as whether opportunities become available to complete upper secondary education later in life or if the duration of general and vocational programmes is altered.
The average age of upper secondary graduates tends to be higher in vocational programmes than in general programmes for both men and women. On average across OECD countries, male graduates obtain their qualification at age 21 in vocational programmes, compared to age 19 in general programmes. Similarly, the average graduation age for women is 22 in vocational programmes, compared to 18 in general programmes (Figure B3.2). However, there is some variation across countries. In Denmark, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and the United Kingdom, the average graduation age is significantly higher in vocational programmes than in general programmes, with a difference of at least four years for both men and women. In contrast, students graduate from general programmes at least one year later than from vocational programmes in Chile, Colombia, Poland and Turkey. In Canada, Costa Rica, Israel, Korea, Mexico and Sweden, the average graduation age is the same in general and vocational programmes (for both men and women). Differences between the graduation age in vocational and general programmes may reflect differences in these programmes' duration. For instance, in Norway, vocational programmes are one-year longer than general programmes, which can contribute to the higher graduation age in vocational programmes (See Indicator A2 in (OECD, 2014[5])).
In general programmes, the average graduation age is virtually the same for men and women, with a gender gap of less than one year in all countries with available data. However, there is more variation in vocational programmes. Although the average graduation age remains similar for both men and women in most countries (with a one-year difference on average across OECD countries), women graduate around two years later than men on average in Finland, three years later in Spain and the United Kingdom, four years later in Iceland, and five years later in Denmark and Norway.
First-time graduation rates
Upper secondary graduation rates
An upper secondary education is often considered to be the minimum credential for successful entry into the labour market and necessary for continuing to further education. The costs of not completing this level of education on time can be considerable to both individuals and society (see Indicators A3 and A4).
Graduation rates offer an indication of whether government initiatives have been successful in increasing the number of people who graduate from upper secondary education. The large differences in graduation rates among countries reflect the variety of systems and programmes available, as well as other country-specific factors, such as current social norms and economic performance.
Current estimates indicate that, on average, 87% of people across OECD countries will graduate from upper secondary education in their lifetime, and 81% of people will do so before age 25. First-time graduation rates (before age 25) exceed 80% in more than half of the countries with available data, but values range from less than 60% in Brazil, Costa Rica and Mexico to over 90% in Greece, Israel, Korea and Slovenia (Table B3.2).
In the majority of countries, first-time graduation rates below age 25 are significantly higher in general programmes than in vocational programmes. On average across OECD countries, around 50% of young adults are expected to graduate from upper secondary general programmes before age 25, compared to 31% for vocational programmes. In fact, Austria, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Turkey and the United Kingdom are the only countries where first-time graduation rates are higher in vocational programmes – although the difference in the Netherlands is only 1 percentage point (Figure B3.3).
The higher graduation rates in general programmes may reflect the lower share of students enrolled in upper secondary vocational programmes than in general programmes (see Indicator B1), along with the lower completion rates in vocational education (OECD, 2017[6]) (Box B3.1).
In countries with available data for 2005, 2010 and 2016, the first-time upper secondary graduation rate below age 25 increased by 9 percentage points between 2005 and 2016 (compared to a 7 percentage-point increase in first-time graduation rates for all ages). The increase was striking in four countries: Portugal, Turkey (both 23 percentage points), Spain (22 percentage points) and Slovenia (21 percentage points). In contrast, in Greece and the Slovak Republic, the first-time graduation rate below age 25 declined by at least 5 percentage points over the period.
Graduation rates, however, do not imply that all graduates will pursue a tertiary degree or enter the labour force immediately, nor that they will have the right skills to succeed once in employment. Indeed, the number of graduates who wind up neither employed nor in education or training (NEET) has been growing in about half of OECD countries (see Indicator A2). For this reason, it is important to have high-quality upper secondary programmes that provide individuals with the right mix of guidance and education opportunities to ensure that there are no dead ends after graduation.
Post-secondary non-tertiary graduation rates
Various kinds of post-secondary non-tertiary programmes are offered in OECD countries. These programmes straddle upper secondary and post-secondary education and may be considered either upper secondary or post-secondary programmes, depending on the country. Although the content of these programmes may not be significantly more advanced than upper secondary programmes, they broaden the knowledge of individuals who have already attained an upper secondary qualification.
First-time graduation rates from post-secondary non-tertiary education are low compared to those from upper secondary programmes. On average, it is estimated that 11% of today’s young people in OECD countries will complete post-secondary non-tertiary programmes over their lifetime. The only countries where first-time graduation rates from post-secondary non-tertiary programmes exceed 20% are the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, New Zealand and the United States. For OECD countries with available data for 2005, 2010 and 2016, the first-time graduation rate (for all ages) remained constant over the past decade (around 11% on average). Nine countries do not offer this level of education: Chile, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Turkey and the United Kingdom (Table B3.2).
Box B3.1. Equity in students’ choice of upper secondary programme and completion of this level of education
Equity in students’ choice of upper secondary programme orientation.
Across OECD countries, there is an increasing interest in the development of vocational upper secondary programmes as an alternative for young people seeking to acquire labour-market skills. In addition to providing technical skills, strong vocational programmes also offer stepping stones for students to succeed in their working life and to move between different tracks and career options (OECD, 2010[7]). These programmes are not meant to be seen as a second-best option for low achievers, but as centres of excellence for developing important skills.
Nevertheless, vocational education also raises equity concerns, especially if the decision to enrol in vocational programmes is mainly determined by students’ socio-economic background. Figure B3.a shows the composition of general and vocational programmes by parents’ educational attainment. In all countries with available data, students whose parents have lower educational attainment are substantially over-represented in vocational programmes.
In nearly every country with available data, the share of students whose parents have not attained upper secondary education is at least twice as high among entrants to vocational programmes as among entrants to general programmes. This gap can be even more striking at the other end of the spectrum, for students with at least one tertiary-educated parent. In France and the Netherlands, for example, students with at least one tertiary-educated parent represent about 50% of general programmes, but less than 20% of vocational programmes.
The magnitude and attractiveness of vocational programmes can, however, vary widely across countries. Among the countries presented in Figure B3.a, the share of upper secondary graduates who obtain a vocational degree ranges from about one-third in Norway and Sweden to more than half in Finland and the Netherlands (Table B3.1). The share is even higher in other OECD countries without data available for Figure B3.a, such as Austria, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic and Switzerland, where over two-thirds of upper secondary graduates obtain a vocational degree. These are also countries where vocational graduates fare well in the labour market, suggesting that attaining a vocational education in these countries may be more a deliberate choice than the result of students’ socio-economic background. These findings suggest caution against generalising the results presented here, especially as they refer to a limited number of countries.
Equity in students’ choice of upper secondary programme orientation.
In addition to influencing the choice of upper secondary programme orientation, the socio-economic background of students can have an important impact on their educational outcomes. Figures B3.b and B3.c explore the completion rate of upper secondary education by two measures that may indicate disadvantaged groups: parents’ educational attainment and immigrant background.
Figure B3.b. shows the share of students who complete upper secondary education within the theoretical duration of the programme in which they entered. The results highlight the fact that for both general and vocational programmes, students with at least one tertiary-educated parent are more likely to complete upper secondary education than students whose parents have not attained tertiary education. This is true for every country with available data, although at varying degrees. The gap in completion between students with at least one tertiary-educated parent and those whose parents have not attained this level ranges from around 5 percentage points in Israel to over 10 percentage points in Norway.
In most countries, the gap between these two groups of students is similar across general and vocational programmes. However, in France and the Netherlands, the gap in general programmes is higher than in vocational programmes. This indicates that, in these countries, vocational programmes are more successful than general programmes in decreasing the impact of socio-economic background on students’ graduation.
Figure B3.c shows the completion rate of upper secondary programmes by the theoretical duration of programmes, disaggregated by students’ immigrant background. In most of the countries with available data, the completion rate of first-generation immigrants (those born outside the country and whose parents were both also born in another country, excluding international students) or second-generation immigrants (those born in the country, but whose parents were both born in another country) was lower than students without first-generation or second-generation immigrant background.
The largest gap is observed in Italy, where 60% of non-immigrants complete upper secondary education on time, compared to 32% of first-generation immigrants and 37% of second-generation immigrants. It must be kept in mind that the share of students with an immigrant background varies across countries. Less than 6% of upper secondary entrants in Italy and Finland have an immigrant background, compared to around 10% in France and Norway and around 15-20% in Israel, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United States. These percentages represent only the school-age immigrants who enter the educational system, which may not always be the case. Moreover, immigrant populations may be very different across countries, and it is important to understand the specificities of each case when designing policies.
The gap between first-generation and second-generation immigrants does not follow a specific pattern in the countries presented. In some countries, such as Finland, Norway and Sweden, first-generation immigrants are considerably less likely to complete upper secondary education than second-generation immigrants. A plausible explanation for the lower outcomes of first-generation immigrants is the language barrier, particularly for students who arrive in the host country at an older age. In other countries, such as the Netherlands, the gap in completion between first-generation and second-generation students is quite small.
Young people who leave school before completing upper secondary education have lower skills, are less likely to be employed and earn less than their counterparts who attain at least this level of education (see Indicators A1, A3 and A4). Thus, the lower completion rates associated with students whose parents have low levels of educational attainment and with those who have an immigrant background can play an important role in furthering inequalities in society.
Definitions
Graduates in the reference period can be either first-time graduates or repeat graduates. A first-time graduate is a student who has graduated for the first time at a given level of education in the reference period. Thus, if a student has graduated multiple times over the years, he or she is counted as a graduate each year, but as a first-time graduate only once.
Net graduation rates represent the estimated percentage of an age group that will complete upper secondary education, based on current patterns of graduation.
Typical age is the age at the beginning of the last school/academic year of the corresponding educational level and programme when the degree is obtained.
Methodology
Unless otherwise indicated, graduation rates are calculated as net graduation rates (i.e. as the sum of age-specific graduation rates). Gross graduation rates are presented for countries that are unable to provide such detailed data. In order to calculate gross graduation rates, countries identify the age at which graduation typically occurs (see Annex 1). The number of graduates, regardless of their age, is divided by the population at the typical graduation age. In many countries, defining a typical age of graduation is difficult, however, because graduates are dispersed over a wide range of ages.
Graduates by programme orientation at the upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary levels are not counted as first-time graduates, given that many students graduate from more than one upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary programme. Therefore, graduation rates cannot be added, as some individuals would be counted twice. In addition, the typical graduation ages are not necessarily the same for the different types of programmes (see Annex 1). Vocational programmes include both school-based programmes and combined school-based and work-based programmes that are recognised as part of the education system. Entirely work-based education and training programmes that are not overseen by a formal education authority are not included.
The average age of students is calculated from 1 January for countries where the academic year starts in the second semester of the calendar year and from 1 July for countries where the academic year starts in the first semester of the calendar year. As a consequence, the average age of first-time graduates may be underestimated by up to six months.
Please see Annex 3 for country-specific notes (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2018-36-en).
Lithuania was not an OECD member at the time of preparation of this publication. Accordingly, Lithuania does not appear in the list of OECD members and is not included in the zone aggregates.
Source
Data refer to the academic year 2015/16 and are based on the UNESCO-UIS/OECD/EUROSTAT data collection on education statistics administered by the OECD in 2017 (for details, see Annex 3 at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2018-36-en).
Note regarding data from Israel
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and are under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
References
[4] Hoogendoorn, S., H. Oosterbeek and M. van Praag (2013), “The impact of gender diversity on the performance of business teams: Evidence from a field experiment”, Management Science, Vol. 59/7, pp. 1514-1528, http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1674.
[6] OECD (2017), Education at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2017-en.
[1] OECD (2015), “Focus on vocational education and training (VET) programmes”, Education Indicators in Focus, No. 33, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jrxtk4cg7wg-en.
[2] OECD (2015), The ABC of Gender Equality in Education: Aptitude, Behaviour, Confidence, PISA, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264229945-en.
[5] OECD (2014), Education at a Glance 2014 : OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2014-en.
[3] OECD (2014), PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I, Revised edition, February 2014): Student Performance in Mathematics, Reading and Science, PISA, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264208780-en.
[7] OECD (2010), Learning for Jobs, OECD Reviews of Vocational Education and Training, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264087460-en.
Indicator B3 Tables
Table B3.1. Profile of upper secondary graduates from vocational programmes (2016)
Table B3.2. Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary first-time graduation rates (2016)
Table B3.3. Trends in upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary first-time graduation rates (2005, 2010 and 2016)
Cut-off date for the data: 18 July 2018. Any updates on data can be found on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-data-en. More breakdowns can be found at http://stats.oecd.org/, Education at a Glance Database.