Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040

Annex B. Details on the policy scenarios

This Annex presents the details on the methodology employed to develop the policy scenario analysis focused on reducing plastic leakage to the environment by 2040. The report quantifies the environmental benefits and macroeconomic consequences of alternative policy scenarios, highlighting the impacts on GDP, as well as the financing needs across regions. The analysis takes a global approach but differentiates across 15 global regions, considering the characteristics of their economies and waste management systems.

Policy pillars

All scenarios are developed starting from a set of ten policy instruments, categorised in the following four policy pillars:

1. Curb production and demand: curb production and demand, by taking measures to avoid the production and use of unnecessary and problematic plastics, promote longer product lifespans, reuse products and shift demand to services. Controlling the production of virgin plastics, e.g. of specific polymers, could also be an effective strategy for reducing environmental impacts associated with the upstream segments of the plastics lifecycle, as well as curbing plastics use and slowing the flow of plastics through the economy.

2. Design for circularity: make production process for plastics more circular, for instance by avoiding the use of problematic materials and hazardous chemicals, facilitating reuse practices, or introducing product standards to improve repairability and substitution away from plastics (where environmentally beneficial).

3. Enhance recycling: close material loops by improving the separate collection, sorting and recycling of plastic waste.

4. Close leakage pathways: decrease losses of plastics into the environment, including via effective waste collection and disposal, as well as improved municipal litter collection and street sweeping.

Scenario descriptions

In the report, five core scenarios are modelled, in addition to a Baseline scenario.

Partial ambition scenarios

• The Global Downstream High stringency policy scenario reflects a possible outcome of treaty negotiations focused on targets and approaches for waste management (i.e. pillar 3 on enhancing recycling, and pillar 4 on closing leakage pathways). This includes stringent policies to improve waste collection, sorting, recycling as well as litter collection and municipal litter clean-up. Policy action to curb production and demand and to design for circularity is limited to current policies (i.e. no additional action is taken on pillars 1 and 2).

• The Advanced economies Lifecycle High stringency policy scenario models a situation where, in the absence of common, global targets, only select countries enhance policy stringency along the lifecycle of plastics. More specifically, a group of advanced economies (approximated as OECD and European Union countries) implement policies with a high level of policy stringency across all four policy pillars, while other countries do not go beyond the improvements already expected in the Baseline scenario.

• The Global Lifecycle Low stringency policy scenario reflects a possible outcome of the treaty negotiations with broad lifecycle coverage but low policy stringency. This scenario models additional, but more incremental policy action in all countries across all four pillars, but with limited policy stringency.

High ambition scenarios

• The Global Lifecycle Mixed stringency policy scenario combines the three individual scenarios outlined above. It reflects a treaty outcome characterised by moderate alignment across countries on the lifecycle scope of policies. Countries in this scenario agree to pursue all three aspects of the partial ambition scenarios above, but do not move beyond these. Advanced economies implement policies with high stringency throughout the plastics lifecycle (aligned with Advanced economies Lifecycle High stringency), while other countries implement high stringency for pillars 3 and 4 (aligned with Global Downstream High stringency) and limited stringency for pillars 1 and 2 (aligned with Global Lifecycle Low stringency).

• The Global Lifecycle High stringency [Global Ambition] policy scenario models a comprehensive and co-ordinated approach that entails a global ramp up of policy action across the lifecycle of plastics, aligned with the shared objective of ending plastic pollution by 2040. In the model, this is reflected as the (narrower) target to mitigate plastic waste mismanagement and end macroplastic leakage by 2040.1 Compared to the Global Lifecycle Mixed stringency scenario, more stringent upstream and midstream policies would be implemented in non-OECD, non-EU countries, thus aligning their degree of policy ambition for all four policy pillars with the ambitions of the Advanced economies.

Specification of the policy instruments for the partial ambition scenarios

 

Pillar	Policy instrument	Global Downstream High stringency	Advanced economies Lifecycle High stringency	Global Lifecycle Low stringency
Curb production and demand	Packaging plastics tax	None	OECD, EU: USD 1 000/tonne by 2030, doubling by 2040. Rest of the world: none.	EU: USD 1 000/tonne by 2030, constant thereafter. Rest of OECD: USD 1 000/tonne by 2040. Non-OECD: USD 1 000/tonne by 2060.
	Non-packaging plastics tax	None	OECD, EU: USD 750/tonne by 2030, doubling by 2040. Rest of the world: none.	OECD: USD 750/tonne by 2040. Non-OECD: USD 750/tonne by 2060.
Design for circularity	Eco-design for durability & repair	None	OECD, EU: 15% lifespan increase by 2040; 10-20% decrease in demand for durables by 2030, constant thereafter; increase in demand for repair services such that ex ante total expenditures are unchanged. Rest of the world: 15% lifespan increase by 2040.	Global: 10% lifespan increase by 2040, 5‑10% decrease in demand for durables by 2040, increase in demand for repair services such that ex ante total expenditures are unchanged.
	Ban selected single-use plastics	None	OECD, EU: phase-out of PP plastics for selected consumer products by 2030. Rest of the world: none.	None
	Substitute away from plastics	None	OECD, EU: reduction of plastics use in production by 17% by 2030 with compensating increase in use of other inputs, constant thereafter. Rest of the world: none.	Global: reduction of plastics use in production by 8.5% by 2030 with compensating increase in use of other inputs, constant thereafter.
Enhance recycling	Recycled content target	Global: 30% recycled content target by 2040.	OECD, EU: 30% recycled content target by 2040. Rest of the world: none.	OECD: 40% recycled content target. Non-OECD: 20% recycled content target.
	EPR for packaging, electronics, automotive and wearable apparel	None	OECD, EU: tax on plastics inputs USD 300/tonne by 2030, constant thereafter; 30% points increase in recycling by 2040; subsidy on waste sector such that the instrument is budget neutral. Rest of the world: none.	OECD + EU: 30% points increase in recycling, tax on plastics inputs – USD 300/tonne by 2030, constant thereafter, subsidy on waste sector such that the instrument is budget neutral. Rest of non-OECD; none.
	Enhance recycling through waste management	EU, Japan & Korea: 60% recycling rate target by 2030, 80% by 2060. Rest of OECD, China: 60% recycling rate target by 2040. Rest of non-OECD: 45% recycling rate target. by 2040.	EU, Japan & Korea: 60% recycling rate target by 2030, 80% by 2060. Rest of OECD: 60% recycling rate target by 2040. Rest of non-OECD: none.	EU, Japan & Korea: 60% recycling rate target by 2030, 70% by 2060. Rest of OECD, China: 60% recycling rate target by 2060. Rest of non-OECD: 40% recycling rate target by 2060.
Close leakage pathways	Improved plastic waste collection	Global: rate of reduction of mismanaged waste shares by 2040 aligned with Global Lifecycle High stringency scenario.	OECD, EU: full reduction of mismanaged waste shares. Rest of non-OECD: none.	OECD: full reduction of mismanaged waste shares. Non-OECD: halving of mismanaged waste shares.
	Improved litter collection	High income countries: collection rates increase 5%-points by 2040. Middle income countries: income-scaled increase (proportional between high income and low income rates). Low income countries: collection rates increase 10%-points by 2040.	High income OECD, EU countries: collection rates increase 5%-points by 2040. Middle income OECD, EU countries: income-scaled increase (proportional between high income and low income rates). Rest of non-OECD: none.	High income countries: collection rates increase 5%-points. Middle income countries: income-scaled increase (proportional between high income and low income rates). Low income countries: none.

Note: The stringency of instruments that are specified with a target date are linearly interpolated between 2023 and the target date.

Specification of the policy instruments for the high ambition scenarios

 

Pillar	Policy instrument	Global Lifecycle Mixed stringency	Global Lifecycle High stringency [Global Ambition]
Curb production and demand	Packaging plastics tax	OECD, EU: USD 1 000/tonne by 2030, doubling by 2040. Rest of the world: USD 1 000/tonne by 2060.	Global: USD 1 000/tonne by 2030, doubling by 2040.
	Non-packaging plastics tax	OECD, EU: USD 750/tonne by 2030, doubling by 2040. Rest of the world: USD 750/tonne by 2060.	Global: USD 750/tonne by 2030, doubling by 2040.
Design for circularity	Eco-design for durability & repair	Global: 15% lifespan increase by 2030, constant thereafter; OECD, EU: 10-20% decrease in demand for durables by 2030, constant thereafter; increase in demand for repair services such that ex ante total expenditures are unchanged. Rest of the world: 5‑10% decrease in demand for durables by 2040, increase in demand for repair services such that ex ante total expenditures are unchanged.	Global: 15% lifespan increase by 2030, constant thereafter; 10-20% decrease in demand for durables by 2030, constant thereafter; increase in demand for repair services such that ex ante total expenditures are unchanged.
	Ban selected single-use plastics	OECD, EU: phase-out of PP for selected consumer products by 2030. Rest of the world: None.	Global: phase-out of PP for selected consumer products by 2030.
	Substitute away from plastics	OECD, EU: reduction of plastics use in production by 17% by 2030 with compensating increase in use of other inputs, constant thereafter. Rest of the world: reduction of plastics use in production by 8.5% by 2030 with compensating increase in use of other inputs.	Global: reduction of plastics use in production by 17% by 2030 with compensating increase in use of other inputs, constant thereafter.
Enhance recycling	Recycled content target	Global: 30% recycled content target by 2040.	Global: 30% recycled content target by 2040.
	EPR for packaging, electronics, automotive and wearable apparel	OECD, EU: tax on plastics inputs USD 300/tonne by 2030, constant thereafter; 30% points increase in recycling by 2040; subsidy on waste sector such that the instrument is budget neutral. Rest of the world: none.	Global: tax on plastics inputs USD 300/tonne by 2030, constant thereafter; 30% points increase in recycling by 2040; subsidy on waste sector such that the instrument is budget neutral.
	Enhance recycling through waste management	EU, Japan & Korea: 60% recycling rate target by 2030, 80% by 2060. Rest of OECD, China: 60% recycling rate target by 2040. Rest of non-OECD: 45% recycling rate target.	EU, Japan & Korea: 60% recycling rate target by 2030, 80% by 2060. Rest of OECD, China: 60% recycling rate target by 2040. Rest of non-OECD: 45% recycling rate target. by 2040.
Close leakage pathways	Improved plastic waste collection	Global: rate of reduction of mismanaged waste shares by 2040 aligned with Global Lifecycle High stringency scenario	Global: full reduction of mismanaged waste shares by 2040
	Improved litter collection	High income countries: collection rates increase 5%-points by 2040. Middle income countries: income-scaled increase (proportional between high income and low income rates). Low income countries: collection rates increase 10%-points by 2040.	High income countries: collection rates increase 5%-points by 2040. Middle income countries: income-scaled increase (proportional between high income and low income rates). Low income countries: collection rates increase 10%-points by 2040.

Note: The stringency of instruments that are specified with a target date are linearly interpolated between 2023 and the target date.

Note

← 1.  A variant of the Global Lifecycle High stringency [Global Ambition] scenario is the Global Lifecycle Delayed stringency scenario. The latter models the implementation of the policy package of the Global Lifecycle High stringency scenario over an extended timeframe, towards a 2060 target for the elimination of leakage.