This chapter outlines the business-as-usual trends as projected in the Baseline scenario. The Baseline scenario models current plastic flows in the economy and generates projections to 2040, including for plastics production and use, waste and end-of-life fates, mismanaged plastics, leakage to the environment and greenhouse gas emissions. Baseline projections for plastic flows are derived from country-specific socio-economic trends expected over the next decades.
Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040
Abstract
As detailed in the Global Plastics Outlook (OECD, 2022[1]), the industrial production and use of plastics started gathering pace in the post-war period and has since grown more rapidly than any other commodity, highlighting an increased reliance of our economies on plastics. Global production and demand for plastics, including fibres and additives, reached 435 million tonnes (Mt) in 2020. While plastics bring many benefits to society, current flows of plastics in the global economy are not sustainable nor circular. The Baseline scenario as projected with the ENV-Linkages model (see Chapter 3 and Annex A) would see current trends of population growth and higher incomes lead to a 70% increase in annual plastics production and use in 2040, from 435 Mt in 2020 to 736 Mt in 2040 (Figure 2.1).1 Overall, relentless growth in plastics production and use raises concerns for the amplification of adverse consequences on human health, the environment and livelihoods.
Plastics use is projected to increase in all regions, but the regional composition of global plastics use is projected to continue to change as a consequence of rapidly growing demand in emerging economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America. As global population rises and living standards continue to improve, emerging and developing economies gradually catch up with higher income countries in terms of plastics use. Together with efficiency improvements in production and structural change, especially towards services, this has implications for materials demand, including plastics. Global growth in plastics production and use is projected to outpace population growth. Plastics use is expected to grow fastest in India and Sub-Saharan Africa, while China is expected to remain the region with the highest share of global plastics use (22%). Although the share of global plastics use in OECD countries is expected to decline, plastics use is still projected to grow in OECD countries, as well as in non-OECD Latin American and Eurasian countries.
Global plastics use in million tonnes (Mt) (left-hand panel), and by regions (right-hand panels)
Notes:
1. In the left-hand panels, regional shares in total in 2040 are indicated in data labels.
2. The rapid growth in 2021 and (to a lesser extent) 2022 reflects the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
At the global level, the expected increase in plastics use between 2020 and 2040 is somewhat lower than the expected increase in GDP. Thus, the plastics intensity of the economy, measured as plastics use in tonnes divided by GDP in million USD, gradually declines, albeit by a small amount and not in all regions (Figure 2.2). Reductions in intensity result from a combination of technological progress that allows faster growth of value added than of the material inputs in production (OECD, 2022[1]). Shifts in economic specialisation also play a role. For example, shifts towards services, which have a below-average plastics intensity, cause a decline in average plastics intensity, whereas industrialisation generally leads to increasing plastics intensity.
The Baseline scenario assumes no new policies are implemented to incentivise a shift away from primary plastics. This leads to an increase in the production of secondary plastics due to expected growth in recycling that keeps pace with growth in demand (increasing 70% between 2020 and 2040) and primary production. As a result, the share of secondary plastics in total production remains fairly stable at a global average of 6%.
(Primary and secondary) plastics intensity of the economy, in tonnes per unit of GDP (t/USD), in 2020 and 2040, Baseline scenario
Note: LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; EU = European Union, NZ = New Zealand, MENA = Middle East and North Africa. See Table A A.2 in Annex A for a more detailed description of the countries covered in each region.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
While plastics are produced and consumed everywhere, regional variations exist regarding total plastics demand. Two-thirds of current use is concentrated in OECD countries and China. As with all materials used as inputs in production processes, there is a strong link between plastics use and socio-economic development. In line with changing economic dynamics of regions and countries, the relative importance of OECD countries in global plastics consumption has been steadily decreasing, while economic growth in emerging economies is now driving growth in global plastics use, as discussed in (OECD, 2022[2]).
To help understand changes in use by application and the related demand for plastic polymers, the ENV-Linkages model maps plastics use by polymer and application to the model sectors (see also Annex A). The links between different polymers and applications is complex, as the same polymers can be used in different ways in various applications, and some polymers represent a wide range of different plastics that are grouped in single category because they share certain characteristics. For instance, PP (polypropylene) is used for packaging, amongst other applications, and is implicated in several sectors, including food products and business services.
The Baseline scenario suggests that applications Electrical/Electronic and Transport will see the fastest growth in plastics use between 2020 and 2040 (Figure 2.3). The Electrical/Electronic application is relatively small compared to some other applications, but linked to many polymers and projected to grow from 9 Mt in 2020 to 21 Mt in 2040 in non-OECD countries, reflecting strong industrial growth. Growth in plastics use for this application is limited in OECD countries, increasing from 7 Mt in 2020 to 9 Mt in 2040. Growth in plastics use for transport is also strong, in this case because use is more concentrated in fast-growing emerging economies and developing countries than for other applications: less than 30% of plastics use for transportation in 2040 is projected to take place in OECD countries.
Plastics use for packaging, the single largest application, is projected to grow by almost 70% between 2020 and 2040, making it the application with the largest absolute growth (+95 Mt between 2020 and 2040). This substantial increase includes increases in low-density polyethylene (LDPE and linear LDPE), polypropylene (PP), high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET).2 This shows that policies currently in place are not sufficient to offset the increase in plastics use by key sectors that rely on packaging, including business services, food products and trade.
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC), mainly used in construction, is the slowest-growing polymer with an increase of less than 60% between 2020 and 2040. Nevertheless, it is a sizeable category with an absolute increase of 15 Mt between 2020 and 2040 in construction alone (right-hand side of Figure 2.3). In contrast, fibres, which are used for textiles, and elastomers for tyres, are projected to increase by around 80%, from 61 Mt to 109 Mt. These differences in trends across polymers and applications are the result of differences in regional sectoral economic growth and highlight the importance of a detailed approach where plastics use is linked to specific economic activities in specific sectors and countries.
Polymer types linked to the relative applications in million tonnes (Mt), in 2040
Note: HDPE = high-density polyethylene; LDPE = low-density polyethylene; LLDPE = linear low-density polyethylene; PET = polyethylene terephthalate; PP = polypropylene; PS = polystyrene; PUR = polyurethane; PVC = polyvinyl chloride; ABS = acrylonitrile butadiene styrene; ASA = acrylonitrile styrene acrylate; SAN = styrene acrylonitrile.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Biobased plastics are plastics that are fully or partially made from biological resources, rather than fossil fuels. In the Baseline scenario, biobased plastics production is projected to increase, although at a slower rate than total plastics production. Overall, its share as a fraction of total plastics production remains marginal (0.5% in 2040). The environmental impacts of growth in bioplastics use are not straightforward to calculate. On the one hand, biobased plastics may offer benefits insofar as their production is less carbon-intensive than fossil-based plastics. On the other hand, concerns exist regarding implications for land use, as increased demand for biobased plastics could increase the area of cropland needed, potentially driving forest conversion and consequent increases in greenhouse gas emission.
One specific case is that of compostable plastics, a subset of biodegradable plastics that decompose in industrial composting facilities. Compostable plastics may be biobased or produced from fossil fuels. If sourced responsibly, compostable plastics may play an important role in reducing the environmental impacts of plastics and the associated reliance on fossil fuels. The existence of well-functioning collection systems, with separate collection for organic waste, is essential to ensure that these materials are well-managed at the end-of-life. The European Union recommends that compostable plastics are reserved only for specific applications. For instance, the use of compostable plastics in applications such as fruit stickers and bags for compostable food waste could help to prevent contamination of the organic waste stream (European Commission, DG for Research and Innovation, 2021[3]). On the other hand, compostable (and biodegradable) plastics should be avoided in contexts characterised by a high risk of leakage to the environment, as biodegradation in natural environments is limited or not possible. In no case should compostable or biodegradable plastics be considered a solution for littering or inappropriate waste management. Furthermore, the separate collection and management of compostable plastics requires specific infrastructure that is not yet available in the majority of countries.
Besides the substitution across different types of plastics, plastics can also be replaced by other materials, depending on the sector and product. For instance, paper and wood are increasingly used to produce single-use products such as plastic plates, or to turn single-use products into reusable products, as has been done for instance for reusable water bottles made of metal. Alternatives to plastics are less available for other applications, such as in the production of electronics. Options for material substitution should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis to assess net environmental and socio-economic consequences. Due to a lack of data and information, as well as the overall complexity and context-dependency of environmental impacts resulting from substitution, it is not possible to generate projections for these types of alternatives within the current modelling exercise. However, the ENV-Linkages modelling framework takes into account how various materials grow in response to changes in product prices and demand and includes substitution effects from plastics to paper, metals, non-metallic minerals and wood products as part of the considered policy packages.
The current use of plastics generates high amounts of waste, including industrial and municipal solid waste. In the Baseline scenario, plastic waste generation would increase by 70% between 2020 and 2040, from 360 Mt to 617 Mt, leading to significantly larger burdens related to plastic waste collection and treatment. Single-use and other short-lived applications are in the main sources of plastic waste (Figure 2.4). At the global level, the share of packaging in waste remains roughly constant over time, while the share of plastics from Buildings and construction increases from 14% in 2020 to 22% in 2040 (Figure 2.5). Plastic waste generation will increase most in Sub-Saharan Africa, India and the Rest of Asia region.
Shares of various applications in total plastic waste (and relative average lifespans), in 2040
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Evolution of plastic waste in million tonnes (Mt) by plastic application
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Out of the 360 Mt of plastic waste generated in 2020, 34 Mt were recycled, 245 Mt were incinerated for energy recovery or landfilled, while 81 Mt were mismanaged, i.e. they were not disposed of in an environmentally sound manner. Within the mismanaged category, 20 Mt leaked to terrestrial or aquatic environments, while the rest mostly ended up in dumpsites or was openly burned.
As discussed in OECD (2022[1]), ENV-Linkages projects waste generation and the future end-of-life fates to 2040. Average lifespans for various applications are used to project when products will become waste. The projections on end-of-life fates rely on a set of assumptions, including that the share of plastic waste collected for recycling continues to grow at the same average rate as over the last 40 years, and that countries with growing incomes invest in better waste collection and treatment and litter clean-up. The end-of-life fates of plastics vary by region, depending on waste management capacity and regulations. Not all plastic that is collected for recycling is actually recycled; in 2020, an estimated 57 Mt were collected, but only 34 Mt actually recycled.3 There are multiple reasons for this discrepancy, including a lack of recycling capacity and the poor quality of some waste that is collected for recycling.
The ENV-Linkages model distinguishes between four different categories for the end-of-life fate of plastics:
Recycling: waste that is collected for recycling, processed, and used for the production of secondary plastics. This waste stream excludes the residues from recycling processes that are disposed of using the other waste management categories.
Incineration: waste that is incinerated in a state-of-the art industrial facility, either with or without energy recovery.
Landfilling: waste that is disposed of on the land, in a controlled way and according to state-of-the art sanitary, environmental and safety requirements.
Mismanagement: all other waste. This category includes waste that is collected and subsequently burned in open pits, dumped in water bodies or disposed of in dumpsites and unsanitary landfills. It also includes waste that is not captured by waste collection, such as road markings. This category also includes uncollected litter, i.e. waste that results from littering by individuals or from fly-tipping, and that is not collected via street sweepings or other clean-up actions. It does not include collected litter that is ultimately disposed of through one of the other categories.
Source: (OECD, 2022[1]).
In the Baseline scenario, it is expected that countries continue to make improvements in waste collection, sorting and treatment, to progress towards environmentally sound management of all waste and enhance recycling. As a result, it is expected that the world would be able to safely manage an additional 219 Mt of waste in 2040, compared to 2020. Improvements in waste sorting and recycling infrastructure would lead to 14% of waste that is recycled in 2040 (compared to 9.5% in 2020; Figure 2.6). However, higher plastic waste generation would lead to a continued prominent role for landfilling (remaining stable as an end-of-life fate for half of total waste from 178 Mt in 2020 to 305 Mt in 2040), while incineration would slightly decrease in percentage terms (from 19% in 2020 to 17% in 2040).
Similarly, despite expected improvements in waste collection, sorting and treatment, higher plastic waste generation would lead to an increase in the absolute amounts of mismanaged waste (i.e. waste that is not disposed of in an environmentally sound manner) compared to 2020 levels. Projected mismanaged waste in emerging economies in Asia and Africa would contribute to the vast majority of the growth in mismanaged waste volumes.
Global end-of-life fates for plastic waste, in million tonnes (Mt), in 2020-2040 (left-hand panel), and by region, as a share of total waste (top right-hand panel) and in Mt (bottom right-hand panel) in 2040
Note: In the left-hand chart, shares of total are indicated in data labels.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
As a consequence of projected trends in plastics production and use, plastic leakage to both terrestrial and aquatic environments is set to accelerate, leading to further adverse consequences for the environment. Annual leakage of macroplastics alone would increase by 50% between 2020 and 2040 to 30 Mt (Figure 2.7). All regions would contribute to increased plastic leakage. Leakage volumes tend to be rather small in OECD and non-OECD EU countries (and declining with 30% in aggregate from 2.3 Mt in 2020 to 1.7 Mt in 2040), while the largest growth rates are expected in India (doubling to 4.1 Mt), other developing and emerging economies in Asia (Rest of Asia; +60% to 5.0 Mt), and Sub-Saharan Africa (doubling to 6.5 Mt). It is expected that the leakage of microplastics, for instance from the wear of plastic materials such as vehicle tyres and synthetic textiles, the use and loss of paints, as well as spills of plastic pellets, would also continue to grow in all regions, in line with higher plastics intensity.
Plastic leakage to the environment in million tonnes (Mt), by region, Baseline scenario
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Importantly, the accumulation of plastics in aquatic environments will continue to increase. Leakage to rivers and oceans would amount to 9 Mt per year in 2040. Continued leakage to the environment would lead to a doubling in the cumulative stocks of plastics in rivers and oceans, to reach 300 Mt by 2040 (from an estimated 152 Mt in 2020; Figure 2.8), amplifying negative impacts for ecosystems, human well-being, coastal economies as well as risks of potentially irreversible damage.
Stocks of plastics accumulated in aquatic environments in million tonnes (Mt), Baseline scenario
Note: The range reflects the uncertainty associated with the projections related to flows of plastics in aquatic systems, with the edges representing low and high estimates.
Source: (Lebreton, 2024[4]), based on OECD ENV-Linkages model projections.
The plastics lifecycle is expected to be a growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the coming decades. In the Baseline scenario, GHG emissions from the plastics lifecycle would increase by 60% in 2040 compared to 2020 levels (1.8 GtCO2e). This is despite the effect of current policies in place as of 2021 that would already limit the growth of GHG emissions. Emissions from the plastics lifecycle accounted for 3.6% of total global emissions in 2020, and the share is projected to rise to 5.0% by 2040; an outcome that is not in line with the Paris Agreement. The increasing share reflects a combination of the continued pace of growth in emissions related to plastics and a slower pace growth in overall emissions due to climate policy commitments.
The entire plastics lifecycle contributes to climate change. Approximately 90% of plastics-related emissions are attributed to the production and conversion stage in plastic manufacturing (Figure 2.9) and are relatively hard to abate. Karali et al (2024[5]) attribute GHG emissions from plastics production to its different stages, finding that 75% of production-related GHG emissions are generated in the steps before polymerisation (20% from the extraction of fossil fuels needed for feedstock and energy, 29% from the refining of hydrocarbons and the production of other non-hydrocarbon chemicals, and 26% from monomer production), while 8% is generated in polymerisation and 17% in product construction.
Significant GHG emissions also come from the end-of-life stage. The mismanagement of plastic waste can contribute to climate change in ways that are difficult to quantify. Plastic waste that is burned informally contributes to emissions of GHG as well as air pollutants, while plastics and microplastics in marine environments may interfere with the oceans capacity to absorb and sequester carbon dioxide.
Efforts to mitigate climate change and to eliminate plastic pollution mitigation are intrinsically linked. Approximately 99% of plastics come from feedstock of fossil fuels, which are the main driver of GHG emissions. The global petrochemical industry is growing at unprecedented speed, mainly driven by expansion in China’s petrochemical sector (IEA, 2023[6]). As global demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels (excluding biofuels, petrochemical feedstock and other non-energy uses) is expected to peak by 2028, petrochemicals are driving additional investments and will likely be the main driver of global oil demand in the next decades (IEA, 2023[7]).
Quantified GHG emissions from the plastics lifecycle in gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e), split by type of greenhouse gas and by lifecycle stage, Baseline scenario
Notes: CH4=methane; CO2= carbon dioxide; N2O=nitrous oxide. Shares of total plastics-related GHG emissions are also displayed.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Plastic pollution encompasses all emissions and risks resulting from the plastics lifecycle. This includes leakage to the environment, GHG emissions, as well as wide variety of other impacts such as resource scarcity, land use, ozone formation and toxicity (Figure 2.10). As discussed in OECD (2022[1]), in the absence of new policies, the environmental and health impacts of plastics will continue to worsen.
Of particular concern for human health is the presence of chemicals that may be present in plastics. Chemical additives are combined with plastic polymers during manufacturing to enhance performance and can include colourants, matting agents, opacifiers and lustre additives to change appearance, inorganic fillers (e.g. carbon or silica) to reinforce the plastic material, thermal stabilizers, plasticizers to render the material pliable and flexible, fire retardants to discourage ignition and burning, and stabilizers to increase resistance to UV degradation (Andrady and Neal, 2009[8]). Overall, more than 16 000 chemicals have been associated with plastics, of which only less than 6% are regulated worldwide (Wagner et al., 2024[9]). More than 4 200 plastic chemicals are of concern because they are persistent, bioaccumulative, mobile, and/or toxic (Wagner et al., 2024[9]).
Human exposure may occur notably during the plastics use phase, e.g. as consumers come in direct contact with food contact materials or consumer products. Exposure can also occur indirectly as humans and biota are exposed to chemicals released from plastics, exposure to microplastics via ingestion or inhalation. Workers who handle plastics are also at risk of chemical exposure. The hazardous properties of these chemicals include carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, reproductive toxicity, specific target organ toxicity, endocrine disruption, ecotoxicity, bioaccumulation potential, environmental persistence and mobility, including the potential for long-range environmental transport to remote locations (UNEP and BRS Secretariat, 2023[10]; Landrigan et al., 2023[11]).
Impacts per million tonne (Mt) of polymer in 2060
Note: Results from a global level lifecycle assessment (LCA) for a previous version of the Baseline scenario in the Global Plastics Outlook.
Source: (OECD, 2022[1]).
References
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← 1. There is a strong link between socio-economic development and materials use, including plastics, as materials are an important input for all production processes. The OECD’s Global Plastics Outlook (2022[1]) details projections to 2060 for socio-economic trends underlying the Baseline scenario, including the evolution in regional populations, gross domestic product, the structure of the economy and production technologies.
← 2. The modelling framework is not capable of tracking substitutions between polymers over time at the application level and thus polymer growth rates are driven by the growth rates of the applications, which are in turn linked to the growth of the associated economic activities.
← 3. Similarly, some plastic litter is collected after littering, e.g. through street sweeping, and then still sorted and treated. Uncollected litter is included in mismanaged waste.