This report investigates the potential benefits and consequences of varying levels of international policy ambition to tackle plastic pollution. It delivers the following key messages:
1. Business as usual is unsustainable as plastic flows and their environmental impacts will continue to grow rapidly.
a. Annual plastics production and use is projected to rise from 435 million tonnes (Mt) in 2020 to 736 Mt in 2040 in the Baseline scenario. The share of recycled plastics would remain unchanged at 6% of total plastics use (41 Mt in 2040).
b. While waste management is expected to improve, advances will not keep pace with the growth of plastic waste (617 Mt in 2040, up from 360 Mt in 2020), resulting in 119 Mt of mismanaged waste in 2040 (increasing from 81 Mt in 2020).
c. Leakage of plastics to the environment will continue (30 Mt in 2040, up from 20 Mt in 2020), amplifying adverse environmental and health impacts. The stock of plastics in rivers and oceans will almost double from 152 Mt in 2020 to 300 Mt by 2040.
d. The plastics lifecycle will emit 2.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions annually by 2040 (5% of global emissions), up from 1.8 GtCO2e in 2020, primarily driven by the production and conversion of plastics.
2. Partial measures, such as policy responses focused on enhancing waste management alone or global action with broad policy coverage but with low policy stringency, are likely to fall short of ending plastic pollution, as are policy responses with ambitious action along the lifecycle implemented only in advanced economies.
a. Enhancing waste management globally can reduce the share of mismanaged waste to 9% by 2040 (compared to 23% in 2020). However, 54 Mt of plastic waste would still be mismanaged in 2040.
b. Stringent policy action in advanced economies only is unlikely to reduce mismanaged plastic waste below 2020 levels. Similarly, global action with broad policy coverage, but low policy stringency, is unlikely to significantly alter Baseline trends.
c. These partial ambition strategies cannot reduce primary plastics production and use below 2020 levels. Mismanaged plastic waste will not be eliminated without highly-stringent measures to curb production and demand implemented globally.
3. The implementation of stringent policies along the plastics lifecycle in all countries can prevent growth in primary plastics production from 2020 levels and nearly end plastic leakage to the environment by 2040.
a. Stringent policies to curb production and demand (limiting total plastics use to 508 Mt in 2040), combined with policies to enhance recycling rates (quadrupling to 42%), can ensure that all growth in plastics use is met through recycled plastics rather than through primary production.
b. This policy package can nearly eliminate mismanaged waste by 2040 (97% below Baseline levels) and prevent 74 Mt of plastics from entering rivers and oceans relative to the Baseline scenario.
c. Stringent policy action can reduce plastics-related GHG emissions to 1.7 GtCO2e by 2040, well below the projected Baseline level of 2.8 GtCO2e in 2040.
4. Global ambition has modest macroeconomic costs overall, however these costs are unevenly distributed across regions.
a. The implementation of stringent global policy action along the lifecycle is projected to incur a 0.5% global GDP loss in 2040 compared to the Baseline scenario but result in vastly improved environmental outcomes. A slower pace of policy action may have some short-term economic benefits but leads to significantly higher pollution levels.
b. Non-OECD countries will face higher costs than OECD countries on average (0.6% vs. 0.4% GDP loss compared to the Baseline, respectively, in 2040), as the strongest policy efforts are needed in countries with less advanced waste management systems, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (1.5% GDP loss).
5. Implementation of an ambitious whole of lifecycle approach globally requires overcoming significant technical, economic and governance barriers.
a. Enhancing waste collection systems, especially in many low- and middle-income countries, is essential to reduce mismanaged waste, but requires robust policy frameworks and adequate and stable sources of finance.
b. Ending plastic leakage by 2040 relies on significant improvements in waste sorting and recycling yields and quality in all regions (to reach a global recycling rate of 42% in 2040, up from 9.5% in 2020). Robust markets for scrap and secondary plastics are required to ensure a viable business case for plastics recycling.
c. Internationally harmonised standards and co-ordinated research efforts are needed to establish eco-design criteria for phasing out problematic or unnecessary plastics and hazardous chemicals, as well as for facilitating waste sorting and recycling.
6. Ending plastic leakage warrants mobilising significant financial resources and strengthening international co-operation.
a. Under current policies, global investment needs for plastic waste management are projected to amount to USD 2.1 trillion between 2020 and 2040. Waste reduction policies, alongside redirecting investment flows towards waste sorting and recycling, could limit additional investment needs required to end plastic leakage to only USD 50 billion by 2040.
b. Successful policy implementation will require leveraging diverse sources of public and private finance and directing capital flows towards interventions along the plastics lifecycle, including to scale up reuse systems and promote eco-design.
c. Developing countries, often the most vulnerable to plastic pollution, are expected to undertake major policy efforts. This underscores a need for enhanced international co-operation and financing. Development finance can play a catalytic role to leverage other sources of finance.
d. Strengthened technical co-operation, capacity building and technology transfer are essential to establish robust policy frameworks, ensure reliable revenue streams for domestic financing of waste collection and treatment (e.g. Extended Producer Responsibility), and target problematic applications.
7. Eliminating plastic leakage is critical, but other plastic pollution aspects require additional interventions.
a. Despite the large benefits of globally ambitious action, the policies modelled are insufficient to mitigate all aspects of plastic pollution, beyond leakage to the environment. Additional, targeted interventions will be needed to reduce risks associated with microplastic pollution and chemicals of concern.
b. Even with global ambition, stocks of plastics in the environment will continue to grow, with 226 Mt of plastics in rivers and oceans by 2040 (up from 151 Mt in 2020). Cost-effective remedial interventions are needed to mitigate environmental and health risks, especially in pollution hotspots.
c. Further reducing plastics-related GHG emissions to align with the ambitions of the Paris Agreement requires dedicated climate mitigation policies, potentially including reforms of government support for primary polymer production and conversion.